Inflation down, interest rates up?

July 20, 2023 Laurent Carlier, Nicolas van Klinkenberg

While many were expecting a longer pause in the raising of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve it seems that the June pause that saw the benchmark interest rate maintained at a target range of between 5 % and 5,25 % may be short lived.

๐Ÿ“ˆ Mastering inflation does not appear to be an easy challenge, especially in the services sector, which should lead to a now widely anticipated hike at the end of July, followed by a pause taking into account the languishing manufacturing sector. ๐—•๐˜† ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ, ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜† ๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐Ÿฑ,๐Ÿฑ % ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐Ÿฑ,๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฑ %. No rate cuts are anticipated by Fed officials until 2024 ๐Ÿšซ

๐Ÿ“‰ In the UK recent signals show a more important than expected slowdown of Headline CPI in June and also a market slowdown in food inflation. If other indicators evolve in the same direction (wage data), ๐˜„๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ธ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—˜๐—ป๐—ด๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐˜„๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐˜ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฎ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ ๐—ฏ๐—ฝ ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ธ๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—”๐˜‚๐—ด๐˜‚๐˜€๐˜ (in state of the foreseen 50 bps) ๐Ÿ’ท

๐ŸŒ Looking at the behavior of Western economies, we should not expect a more accommodating rate policy in Europe for some time ๐Ÿฆ

๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜โ€™๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜†?

โŒ› Higher interest rates are here to stay. Even though long term forward rates curbs still show a high rate on short term and decreasing rates on longer term. Isnโ€™t time pushing this pike forward, finally ending up with long term higher rates?

Companies financed through short term rates already felt increasing finance costs. Mid- and long term financed companies are still (partly) benefiting from fixed interest rates on longer term contracts, but are anxiously looking at the end date of those facilitiesโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“ฒ Ernest Partners is there to help you review your financing structure and anticipate higher financing cost. Interested? Send us a PM?