Economic forecasts by Deutsche Bank

February 15, 2023 Laurent Carlier, Sebastien D'Hondt, Nicolas van Klinkenberg

💡 Interesting update of economic forecasts published by Deutsche Bank. We distill the following directions from it:

1. It takes 12 to 18 months before Central Banks interest increases impact can be measured. It is certainly 𝘁𝗼𝗼 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆.

2. In the real estate sector in particular, 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝗮 𝗹𝗮𝗴 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝟭𝟮 𝘁𝗼 𝟭𝟴 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀.

3. 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝘃𝗼𝗶𝗱 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 due to governments succeeding in finding alternative energy sources to Russia. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 ‘𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱’ 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗳 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿.

4. Geopolitic risks remain obviously high and 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝘀 𝘆𝗲𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

At Ernest Partners, we talked already many times about the VUCI world*. 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗻𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲.
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